本文摘要：They say Jan. 18 — or Blue Monday — is the most depressing day of the year, but theyre wrong. The most depressing day of the year is today, because youre about to find out how and when youre most likely to die.人们总说道“蓝色星期一”，即1月18号那一天，是一年中心情最阴沉的日子。

They say Jan. 18 — or Blue Monday — is the most depressing day of the year, but theyre wrong. The most depressing day of the year is today, because youre about to find out how and when youre most likely to die.人们总说道“蓝色星期一”，即1月18号那一天，是一年中心情最阴沉的日子。拢了。最沮丧的一天将是今天，因为今天你将发现自己很可能会怎么杀、何时杀。

Statistician Nathan Yau has created an interactive chart to determine, in his words, how and when you will die, given your sex, race and age. Fun!统计学家邱南森制作了一个对话图表，他称之为这个图表将“根据年龄、种族以及年龄有所不同，表明每个人在各个年纪将面对何种威胁生命的问题”。真为神秘！To create his chart, Yau used data from the CDCs Underlying Cause of Death Database, a rather bleak collection of US death statistics from 1999 to 2014. Using information obtained from Americans death certificates, the database catalogs deaths based on age, race, gender, year and cause of death, among other metrics.美国疾控中心搜集了1999年至2014年期间国内丧生证明上的一些信息，并统计资料了其中关于美国人主要死因的系列数据，结果不容乐观。该数据库根据年龄、种族、性别、年份、死因及其他参数将丧生情况展开分类。Once you enter your sex, race and age, the chart will kick into motion. For each year past your current age, itll show you how likely you are to die of various common causes of death: infection, cancer, blood, endocrine, mental, nervous, circulatory, respiratory, digestive, musculoskeletal, genitourinary, perinatal, congenital and external causes.只要你一输出自己的性别、种族和年龄，该图表就开始再次发生适当变化。

对于你今后的每一年，它都将表明一组潜在的死因，如传染病、癌症、血液疾病、内分泌紊乱、精神疾病、神经疾病、循环系统疾病、排便疾病、消化疾病、肌骨紊乱、泌尿生殖疾病、围产期丧生、先天性疾病及其他外因。并且，随着年纪的转变，各死因概率不会再次发生对应的变化。For every year past your current age, the chart will also show you the likeliness of having died by that point.图表中还不会表明，你活过某一个年龄的概率有多大。

The main point, which is what youd expect, is that mortality rate is much lower in the earlier years of life than in the older years. But, if you do die at a younger age, its much more likely due to something external rather than a disease.可以再会的是，相比于晚年，早年死亡率要较低得多。但是，早年丧生的原因大多是外部事故，而非自身疾病。You can also look at it the other way. Shift age to the older years, and let the simulations run. Youre much more likely to die of a disease rather than something external. Shift past 80 years, and its over 40% chance the cause will be circulatory, regardless of demographic group.你也可以换回个看作这个问题。

把年龄原作得大一些，然后让模拟器运转一起。随着人们渐渐变老，死因更加有可能是自身疾病，而非外部因素。不管哪类人，活至八十，杀于血液循环疾病的几率都多达40%。I tried the chart out for myself, a 24-year-old white female. If I die two years from now, at 26, theres hardly any chance itll be from health problems — and a very high likelihood itll be from external causes.我自己也尝试了一下这个图表。

我按拒绝依序输出了自己的信息：女性，白种人，24岁。图表上表明着：两年后，也就是当我26岁的时候，我若是面对着丧生，基本上可以认同不是因为我身体很差，而罪魁祸首很有可能是意外事故。At 50 years old, theres a 95% chance Ill still be alive — thats still pretty good! If I do happen to die at 50, itll most likely be from circulatory problems, cancer, infection or external causes.图表表明我能活到50岁的几率高达95%，这真是太棒了！但如果我意外50岁的时候杀了，很大有可能是病死血液循环疾病、癌症、传染病或意外事故。Finally, here I am at 80. Now, theres only a 52% chance Ill still be alive. If I die, the most likely causes will be circulatory, cancer and endocrine.最后，看一下八十岁的我是怎样的情况吧。

果然，我死掉的几率减为了，只有52%，主要的死因是血液循环疾病、癌症和内分泌紊乱。Yau was surprised to see that circulatory problems — and not cancer — were such a prominent cause of death.邱南森吃惊地找到，主要丧命疾病居然是血液循环疾病而非癌症。It seems like cancer would be the leading cause, just going off general news, he wrote. This is certainly true up to a certain age, but get past that and your heart can only keep going for so long.他写到：“根据各大新闻的报导，人们或许仍然指出癌症才是头号刺客。

当人活过某个年纪，显然如此。但就算你过了这一关，你的心脏也不能再行运转这么些年。

”想玩的拷贝此链接搜寻：http://flowingdata.。

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