本文摘要：What if someone came up with a new technology product that was hailed as a breakthrough with the potential to rival the smartphone, but then didn’t make it available to 85 per cent of possible buyers?如果有人设计出有了一款被誉为突破性的、有潜力与智能手机媲美的新科技产品，但又无法让85%的潜在买家用上，结果不会怎样？

What if someone came up with a new technology product that was hailed as a breakthrough with the potential to rival the smartphone, but then didn’t make it available to 85 per cent of possible buyers?如果有人设计出有了一款被誉为突破性的、有潜力与智能手机媲美的新科技产品，但又无法让85%的潜在买家用上，结果不会怎样？That is what Apple is about to do with the launch of its Watch. It will start collecting orders online from Friday and release the device in nine countries in two weeks.这就是苹果(Apple)发售其智能手表Watch时将不会面对的问题。该公司将从本周五起接管在线订单，并于两周后在9个国家发售这款设备。For something that carries with it the best hope yet for a new “wearables” computing platform, the Watch risks being hamstrung. Only a subset of Apple’s existing customers will end up owning one. That is because it is yoked to the iPhone (which is used by only one in six smartphone owners): Watch gets its connectivity from the iPhone, and the only apps that work on it are extensions of the ones that are carried by Apple’s App Store for use on its own mobile devices.迄今为止，苹果Watch是被人们抱有最低希望的新式“可穿着”计算出来平台，但它有可能无以有大作为。

苹果的现有客户中，只有一小部分人最后能享有这款产品。这是因为它与iPhone初始化在一起，而iPhone用户仅有占到智能手机用户的六分之一。

苹果Watch通过iPhone与外界相连，而且它配备的应用于都是苹果应用于商店(App Store)中苹果自身移动设备所载应用于的拓展。According to influential US management professors David Yoffie and Michael Cusumano, this is just the latest manifestation of Apple’s halfhearted acceptance of the significance of tech platforms. In their book Strategy Rules*, to be published next week, they argue that the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobswas instinctively drawn to building self-contained products — tightly integrated pieces of technology that worked on their own terms.极具影响力的美国管理学教授戴维约菲(David Yoffie)和迈克尔库苏马诺(Michael Cusumano)回应，这不过是一个近期的例子，证明苹果并不仅有心接纳技术平台的重要性。两人在他们下周将出版发行的新书《战略规则》(Strategy Rules)中回应，胞弟苹果牵头创始人史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)热衷打造出自成一体的产品（即按照苹果自己的原作运营、彼此高度统合在一起的各种科技设备）是其性格大不相同。Platforms, by contrast, benefit from network effects as other tech companies add complementary products and services, such as apps, which in turn draw more users. Jobs finally bowed to the power of the platform idea with the App Store for Apple’s mobile devices. But, according to Mr Yoffie and Mr Cusumano, the mix he exhibited is still evident at Apple and could result in the tech group squandering a lead in the post-smartphone computing platform.相比之下，技术平台可从网络效应中受益，因为其他科技公司不会加到补充性的产品和服务（比如应用于），进而更有更加多用户。

乔布斯最后屈服于平台理念的力量，为苹果移动设备发售了应用于商店。但在约菲和库苏马诺显然，他所展现出的这种微妙态度如今在苹果仍十分显著，而且有可能造成这家科技集团在后智能手机时代的计算出来平台领域丢掉领先优势。The picture is not black and white. It is probably better to think of the Watch as an extension of an existing tech platform, rather than a product with no platform aspirations at all. It will, after all, run stripped-down apps from third parties. As such, it represents a first, cautious play in a new market where there are likely to be rethinks along the way.事情没那么意味著。

更加合理的观点也许是，把Watch视作苹果现有技术平台的一个拓展，而非一款没什么平台志向的产品。却是，它将运营来自第三方的简版应用于。本质上谈，它代表一个新的市场中的首次慎重试水，随着时间前进，苹果可能会有新的考量。

History shows that Apple is quite prepared to make adjustments. After all, it displayed a similar caution with version 1.0 of other gadgets, including the iPod and iPhone. The iTunes music software, an integral part of the iPod, was initially limited to the Mac. The iPod only took off once the software was opened up to PC users. In a similar vein, the iPhone was initially designed to run only Apple’s applications.历史经验指出，苹果在做到调整前会做到充份的打算。却是，它在1.0版本的其他产品（还包括iPod和iPhone）上也展现了某种程度的慎重。作为iPod组成部分的音乐软件iTunes最初仅限于Mac用于。

iPod是在该软件向PC用户对外开放后才开始热销的。与此类似于，iPhone最初也不能运营苹果的应用于。

The first iterations of these products didn’t set the world on fire. Apple sold fewer than 1m iPods in the first year and only about 6m iPhones. Watch 1.0 should at least do much better than that. Most analysts are predicting sales of 20m-40m in the first year. But this could still represent a missed opportunity if Apple cedes a dominant market share in wearables to Google’s Android, as it has in smartphones.这些产品的最初版本在问世时都不曾让世界兴奋不已。在问世的头一年，iPod只卖出将近100万部，iPhone只卖出大约600万部。

第一代Watch的展现出最少应当不会比这要好得多。多数分析师预测，Watch头一年的销量将约2000万至4000万块。但是，如果苹果将可穿着设备的主要市场份额让给让与谷歌(Google)的Android，就像它在智能手机市场所做到的那样，即便这样的销量有可能仍回应苹果错失了良机。

The trick will be deciding when — and if — to treat the Watch as a platform in its own right. Such decisions, made in the heat of the moment, don’t always look like calculated strategy choices taken in a cold and deliberative manner.棘手的是要求何时以及否将Watch视作一个独立国家平台。在情绪高涨的时候作出的此类要求，看起来并不总看起来耐心而谨慎作出的有计划的战略自由选择。

According to various accounts, for instance, Jobs was deeply opposed to opening up iTunes and only gave in when his managers ganged up against him. Mr Yoffie and Mr Cusumano describe the scene as told to them by one former Apple executive: “After yet another heated argument, [Jobs] hurled an expletive at the assembled managers, yelled, ‘Do whatever you want, you’re responsible,’ and stormed out of the room.”举例来说，有多种众说纷纭称之为，乔布斯曾反感赞成对外开放iTunes，当他手下的经理牵头赞成他后，他才屈服。约菲和库苏马诺援引一名前苹果高管的话叙述了那一幕：“在经过了又一番白热化的辩论后，（乔布斯）朝着牵头一起的经理们扯了句脏话，嚷道，‘你们想要怎么做就怎么做吧，你们负责管理，’然后怒气冲冲地离开了房间。”For the Watch to cut its tie with the iPhone, some fundamental issues would need to be solved, ranging from battery life (needed to connect to a 3G network) and cost (the 3G chip and a separate data plan) to usability.Watch要想要截断与iPhone的绑，必须解决问题一些显然问题：从电池续航时间（这是相连3G网络所需的）、成本（3G芯片和分开的流量套餐）到可用性。If one of the Watch’s main uses is to display notifications pushed out by smartphone apps, could it have an independent existence? It may be that wearables like this are never more than marginal peripherals for smartphones, rather than pieces of a new computing platform in their own right.如果Watch的主要用途之一是表明智能手机应用于启动时的通报，它还能独立国家不存在吗？也许，这类可穿着设备总有一天只是智能手机无关紧要的外设，而不是新的独立国家计算出来平台设备。

The more immediate challenge for Apple, meanwhile, will be to convince its existing loyal customers that there are enough good reasons to brandish a computer on their wrists, even one bearing the stylish hallmark of Apple design studios. There will be plenty of time to loosen the ties with a Watch 2.0.与此同时，苹果面对的更加严峻挑战是，如何劝说现有的心目中客户坚信一点：他们能寻找充份的理由向别人夸耀戴着在他们手腕上的计算机，即便上面具有苹果设计工作室的时尚标识。至于用第二代Watch来“放开”，时间还充足得很。

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